You don't deserve to be a top draft pick!

I was recently watching a segment on a national cable news channel that was titled "You don't deserve to be rich!". Needless to say this was fascinating television for a number of reasons, with so-called experts and television personalities debating the actual monetary value of everyday people like me and you while pretending to be doing a public service. And all the while, the viewer had this feeling of inescapable doom that could only be cured by directing all of their pent-up anxiety and anger toward the everyday joe in question. Somewhere Karl Marx was saying, "I f***ing told you so!".

As this wonderful segment went on, it began to focus on the life of some poor schmuck in Jersey who ran the local SPCA (Society for Prevention of Cruelty to Animals). Now, the first thing that occurred to me was that I had never even heard of local SPCA's, which kind of blew my mind, and the second thing that occurred to me was that the local dog-lover-in-chief makes 300K a year, which totally blew my mind. But, if you think about it, so what? So this guy has put himself in a position to be well-paid at something that he loves doing. Isn't that the American way? Shouldn't we all be so lucky? This guy is just happily going through life, blissfully unaware of how lucky he is to be extraordinarily overpaid. Then one day, the bottom falls out of the markets, we have financial armageddon all around us, and BOOM, he's public enemy #1. Break out the guillotines! Let them eat cake!

Now, I'm fully aware that I was supposed to be shocked by this guy's story, and normally I don't fall for such media hyperbole. But I convinced myself to make an exception in this case because regardless of how poorly they were selling it, they were right: No way this guy deserves that kind of coin. I would argue that he deserves to be paid $300k a year in the same way that Josh Hamilton deserves to be a first round pick in a fantasy draft. Which is to say, not at all. Therefore, I feel like we should translate this newfound public awareness to the world of fantasy. But I discussed Hamilton last week, and I don't think I need to get back into that. So, let's focus on some other players who are going way, way too early in drafts this year:

Evan Longoria
Average Draft Selections:
Yahoo: 17.3
ESPN: 26.2
CBS: 16.5

The expectations on this kid are huge, but the thing to remember is that he's just that, a kid. He has enormous potential, and in a few years will be a no-doubt-about-it first round pick. But by then he will have mastered the art of hitting major league pitching, a process that is still being developed right now. He'll struggle to hit .270 this year with about 27 HR's, 90 RBI's, and 85 runs scored. Potentially he could steal 10 bags, but somewhere around 6 is more likely. But, if he runs into a sophomore slump situation, ala Troy Tulowitzki last year(who is now undervalued), those numbers could be even lower. Why, then, is he being taken over guys like Chase Utley, Alfonso Soriano, and Lance Berkman? Position scarcity is part of the answer, but don't fool yourself, taking Longoria before the 4th round is a reach.

Johan Santana
Average Draft selections:
Yahoo: 14.7
ESPN: 10.5
CBS: 16.9

I may have added Santana to this list anyway because there is plenty of pitching this year, but the primary reason he is on here is because of the news that he is experiencing elbow soreness and may not be ready for opening day. Don't take a pitcher this early if you are even remotely concerned about injury risk. Hurt pitchers generally will kill your stats for two or three starts before they go on the DL. It's like they want to kick you when you are down, and the only reason you are down in the first place is because they already stabbed you in the back.

Carl Crawford
Average Draft Selections:
Yahoo: 32.8
ESPN: 37.4
CBS: 32.6

Carl Crawford is one of my favorite ballplayers. My son's first MLB game was at the Trop, where we witnessed Crawford go yard and make a spectacular catch in a game during his rookie year. He also has legendary work ethic and isn't past his prime yet(28 in August). I still do hold out hope that he can be the same player he was a few years ago when he was swiping 50 bags, scoring 100 runs, knocking in 80, and hitting over .300 with close to 20 bombs. But I don't think it's gonna happen until next year, not with the litany of injuries he endured last season. I think he'll work his way back slowly this year, he'll be a great asset both defensively and with timely hitting types of things. But the overall numbers, especially the steals, probably won't be back yet. And, either way, I'm not about to spend a 3rd round pick expecting it to happen. But that is where he's being drafted right now, leading me to believe that some owners disagree. I hope they are right, though, for their sake and for his.

Carlos Quentin
Average Draft Selections:
Yahoo: 26.9
ESPN: 64.3
CBS: 28.9

Talk about riding the under/over valued roller coaster. This guy has been all over it the last year or so. He went undrafted in mixed leagues last year. Then he became a hot pickup that owners were merely hoping to catch on a hot streak. I doubt they expected that hot streak to last 3 months though. But it did, it lasted until he broke his wrist in September. The key word in that last sentence, of course, is wrist. Judging by the ESPN slide in his draft position, I would suspect that someone on their site has already stated this, but wrist injuries are tricky, even for proven players. For players that went undrafted the year before, let's just say I would stay away.

Jonathan Papelbon
Average Draft Selections:
Yahoo: 41.1
ESPN: 46.5
CBS: 35.7
Don't take a closer before at least the 7th round. It makes no sense when they only provide one category. That's really all I have to say about that.

MLB.com hearts Josh Hamilton (and hates you)

Wow. I can't believe I'm going to devote my first blog entry to MLB.com and Josh Hamilton (while we're at it, let's think of a good nickname for this guy). But we all make sacrifices for the greater good I suppose. And the sheer idiocy of having Hamilton (The Rehab Kid) ranked in the top ten of a prominent website's overall fantasy ranking system is something that I feel warrants some attention. I must first admit that I think Hamilton (Methadone Man) overachieved at least slightly last year. In his second season in the majors he finally fulfilled at least some of the potential that had been surrounding him since he was taken first overall in the 1999 draft by the then "Devil" Rays. 2008 was definitely his coming out party, but how good will '09 be to him? Probably not quite as good is my guess. And I'm sure I can't be the only one who feels that way. Let's break it down though, in terms of the actual numbers. A look at Hamilton's 5x5 numbers for the 2008 season:

.304/98/32/130/9

Incredible numbers, really. Especially in the post-steroid era. In fact, these numbers put him well within the top ten hitters in baseball last year. But, if we take a look at his pre/post all-star splits we see something quite interesting:

.310/60/21/95/7 (pre)
.296/38/11/35/2 (post)

Those first-half numbers are just ridiculous. And when you consider just how far he was launching the baseball during the Home Run Derby at the All-Star Game, you realize that, at that moment, his value was the highest it will ever be. I would guess that quite a few Hamilton(The Born Again Basher) owners may have even passed on the opportunity to deal him when they could have gotten someone like Mark Teixeira or even David Wright in return. In fact, in one league I was in last year, someone who was trying to snag him as a cheap keeper for the '09 season offered both Teixeira and Wright straight up and was actually turned down! Judging by the huge drop off in Hamilton's second-half stats, I'd say someone was later kicking themselves.

2008 is in the books though. All we care about, really, is what will Hamilton (The Sobrietor) do in 2009. Let's take look at the PECOTA projections, the MLB projections, and the ESPN projections, in order:

.284/91/25/94/8
.308/105/34/126/8
.306/95/33/112/8

Now, I'm not one to go strictly off of any one set of projections, and I realize that PECOTA does their projections on a percentile basis that I don't have the time or the brain capacity to explain here. And, I also understand that MLB is projecting numbers very similar to last year, while the other two have dropped him primarily in R's and RBI's, probably (and understandably) due to his poor 2nd half numbers. But, the million dollar question is what do these differences translate to in terms of draft value and position? Again, in order, MLB, ESPN, and my own personal rankings(which are based primarily, although not exclusively on PECOTA projections):

10th overall, 3rd among outfielders, $31
19th overall, 5th among outfielders, $19
34th overall, 10th among outfielders, $18

I'll admit that I tend to stay away from players like Josh (The only juice I'm on is Jesus Juice) Hamilton until I see it for more than half a season. And I am also very big on actually predicting what is most likely to happen in the future, not merely extending what has already happened in the past. I believe this is why they call them projections, as the word itself insinuates forward thinking. This is a novel idea that many, many prominent fantasy websites have adopted, unfortunately just not the official fantasy site of Major League Baseball.

Early returns show a lot of people falling into this highly elaborate trap that MLB.com has set. Draft results on Yahoo, CBS, and ESPN all show that (Jonesin Josh) Hamilton is actually going in the top 10 of most drafts, probably to someone who has wrongly undervalued Carlos Beltran, Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Lee, and Nick Markakis. So, my advice to you? Obviously, don't fall into that trap, and if you play in an auction league, throw out "Josh Hamilton (The Overrated One) for $1" as soon as you can and watch one of your competitors waste $45 on him.